When it comes to Black voters in Pennsylvania, third party candidates pose a bigger threat to President Joe Biden’s re-election chances than Donald Trump, according to an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
Out of 500 Black registered voters polled, over 56% said Biden would be their first choice compared to almost 10% who said they would vote for Trump in 2024. Almost 14% of voters polled said they were undecided.
About 20% of respondents said they voted for Biden in 2020 but would not vote for him in 2024, with about 28% of those voters saying Biden “has done a poor job” in office. Over 16% said they felt Biden was too old and over 15% said they were dissatisfied over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Over a dozen of those 2020 Biden voters who said they wouldn't vote for the Democrat again also said the current president hasn't lost their support entirely.
Independents Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are the first choice for 7.6% and 7.4% of respondents, respectively. Both West and Kennedy are petitioning to appear on the ballot in Pennsylvania, which requires a petition signed by just 5,000 electors by Aug. 1.
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David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the latest poll conducted in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two swing states in the 2024 election, was a unique look at how the Black vote could shape this year’s election.
“People are drawing conclusions about black voters based on statewide polls that only show black voters as a small percentage of the total,” Paleologos said. “In many of these statewide polls, black voters, the black voter subset, is only 60 or 70 or 80 respondents, and that subset gives a much higher margin of error to draw conclusions.”
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About half of the respondents were from Philadelphia, about 12% were from Allegheny County, 6% from Montgomery County and another 16% were from “all other counties.”
“Doing a zoom in of just black voters was an important piece of research so that within a much lower margin of error, we could begin to see what people were thinking and saying in the poll,” Paleologos added.
Independents drawing support
Biden’s lead over Trump among Black voters isn’t quite as solid as it might seem at first glance.
For example, while 281 people polled said they would vote for Biden this year, 291 people also said they felt the country was “on the wrong track.”
Supporters of the president have raised the alarm over Kennedy’s potential to siphon votes away from Biden in November, but Paleologos said West seemed like the bigger threat for Biden to draw in the Black vote in Pennsylvania.
Paleologos said that both Biden and Trump are likely feeling the threat posed by third-party options.
“About 10% of Black voters who voted for Trump in 2020 are now voting for Biden, but only 4% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are voting for Trump," he said. "The difference is the independents and, in both cases, Biden’s losing 17% and Trump is losing 16% to third-party candidates.”
If he can get on the ballot, West may already have won over Beza Wossene, 37, of Philadelphia, who told USA Today she feels that the Democratic Party is “more interested in the status quo and doing what they need to do to find the lesser of two evils from Trump rather than improving our lives.”
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“Cornel West came to my college when I was an undergrad,” Wossene said. “It was the first time I put together the academic work I was doing in my major in politics and African history with somebody kind of showing you how you can combine morality and politics and think about humanity as a whole.”
Wossene is a college administrator with a master’s degree but said she had to go to China to land her first job.
Wosenne owns a home and has two children with her husband. She said inflation has made it difficult for them to make ends meet.
“I thought if I did everything that my parents didn't do that I would be able to get myself out of the working class but I think even today, I'm a professional in the workforce and even though my salary is double what it was after my first job after my masters, my economic situation hasn't improved," Wossene said. "I know a lot of people in way worse off situations."
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A previous USA TODAY/Suffolk national poll in March found that voters were concerned about the economy and inflation, immigration and threats to democracy in very tight margins.
For Black voters in Pennsylvania, Paleologos said “talking about anything other than the economy and inflation is a fool’s errand” for any candidate trying to court Black voters.
Over 37% of respondents said the economy was a major issue for them this November, with threats to democracy at 18% and crime at 12%.
“These are voters who have a lower income than the average voter and so a price increase is going to hurt them much, much more than someone who has more disposable weekly income,” Paleologos said. “It makes sense that it's such a pronounced issue in this poll.”
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Almost 40% of Black voters polled make less than $50,000 a year.
Ronald Bennett, 67, of Pittsburgh, worked as a certified nurse assistant in a senior living facility before he had a stroke in 2012. He now receives Social Security Disability Insurance and is feeling the impact of rising inflation.
“Everything has done got more expensive than four years ago,” Bennett said. “Everything is going up except for the paychecks.”
Bennett said he receives just $16 a month from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) formerly known as “food stamps.”
“They act like they give you a lot when they give you food stamps but food stamps is not enough for the price of food now,” Bennett said. “The way the economy is now, $16 is just enough to buy a loaf of bread and a dozen eggs. Once I pay all my bills and everything, I have nothing.”
Despite living on a tight budget, Bennett said he still plans to vote for Biden in November.
“Everybody blames the president, but the president only has a certain amount of control over the economy,” Bennett said. “He can’t change the way things is.”
Chris Ullery is the Philadelphia Hub Data Reporter for the USA Today Network. Reach him at cullery@couriertimes.com or find him on Twitter at @ulleryatinell.
Rachel Barber is a 2024 election fellow at USA Today, focusing on politics and education. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, as @rachelbarber_
